The US 15K championship, along the St. Johns River and finishing over the steep Hart Bridge. Early March in Jacksonville is usually mild, though humidity and river wind vary a lot.
Plan for about 56°F (13°C) at the 08:00 start, feeling like 54°F (12°C), with 80% humidity and 8 mph wind, warming to roughly 60°F (16°C) by the finish. It rained on 4 of the last 10 race days. Wear: Short Sleeve Tech Shirt, Capris or Light Tights, Running Cap, Waterproof Jacket.
Feels like 54°F (12°C) at the start · finish 60°F (16°C) · rain 4 of 10 · start air from 45°F (7°C) to 72°F (22°C)
Conditions at the 08:00 start on the race's usual date each year (first Saturday of March). Years when the race was cancelled or moved still show that date's weather. Source: Open-Meteo ERA5 archive.
Bar: air temperature from start to finish · dot: feels-like effective temperature · ≫ windy (15+ mph) · rain · shaded: PR band 40–50°F
| Year | Start temp | Feels like | Finish | Humidity | Wind | Rain | Sky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 50°F (10°C) | 47°F | 54°F | 80% | 5 mph | – | Clear |
| 2024 | 65°F (18°C) | 68°F | 67°F | 94% | 4 mph | 0.51 in | Overcast |
| 2023 | 72°F (22°C) | 74°F | 72°F | 93% | 13 mph | 0.19 in | Rain |
| 2022 | 59°F (15°C) | 61°F | 62°F | 98% | 2 mph | – | Overcast |
| 2021 | 58°F (14°C) | 52°F | 60°F | 70% | 13 mph | 0.17 in | Overcast |
| 2020 | 45°F (7°C) | 35°F | 47°F | 56% | 12 mph | – | Clear |
| 2019 | 64°F (18°C) | 66°F | 65°F | 92% | 5 mph | 0.58 in | Rain |
| 2018 | 49°F (9°C) | 41°F | 52°F | 54% | 11 mph | – | Clear |
| 2017 | 51°F (11°C) | 45°F | 59°F | 70% | 9 mph | – | Clear |
| 2016 | 51°F (11°C) | 48°F | 58°F | 90% | 5 mph | – | Clear |
Coldest start: 45°F (7°C) in 2020. Warmest: 72°F (22°C) in 2023. Wettest: 0.58 in in 2019.
The time estimates apply published temperature–performance curves to this race's ten-year weather history. Performance peaks at an effective race temperature of roughly 40 to 50°F and degrades faster the warmer it gets and the slower you run (Ely et al., 2007; El Helou et al., 2012). Wind adds a cost that grows with the square of the wind speed (Pugh, 1971), split into head and tail components on point-to-point courses. Shorter races are penalised less. This is a model, not a prediction; your training and the course matter more.
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Built from the 10-year average start conditions by the same engine as the live tool. Treat optional items as corral-only layers you can shed.
Short Sleeve Tech Shirt
Breathable running tee
Waterproof Jacket
Breathable rain protection
Capris or Light Tights
3/4 length for moderate warmth
Running Cap
Keep rain out of eyes
Trail or Waterproof Shoes
Better grip and water resistance
✓ Worn by the author
Compression tight for 40 to 55°F, works under shorts
$78
✓ Worn by the author
Fast-drying micromesh tee for warm-weather miles
$75
Packable wind shell for cool morning miles
$115
✓ Worn by the author
Thin, ribbed quarter sock that keeps grit out
$36
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Over 2016 to 2025 the start averaged 56°F (13°C) (feels like 54°F (12°C)) with 80% humidity and 8 mph wind, warming to about 60°F (16°C) by the finish. It rained measurably on 4 of those 10 race days. The coldest start was 45°F (7°C) in 2020; the warmest was 72°F (22°C) in 2023.
For a typical 56°F (13°C) start: Short Sleeve Tech Shirt, Capris or Light Tights, Running Cap, Waterproof Jacket. Dress for about 15°F warmer than the start temperature, since the race itself adds that much, and plan to shed anything you only need in the corral.
The Gate River Run is usually held on first Saturday of March. The next expected date is Saturday, March 6, 2027. Confirm on the official site, since dates occasionally move.
The live forecast on this page comes from Open-Meteo and unlocks 16 days before the race. Forecasts inside 7 days are reliable for temperature within a few degrees; rain timing firms up in the last 2 to 3 days. Until then, the 10-year history above is the best planning guide.
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