Madrid's New Year's Eve 10K, from the Bernabéu down the Castellana to Vallecas, with a climb near the end. The late-afternoon start is dry and cold, and it drops toward freezing once the sun goes down.
Plan for about 48°F (9°C) at the 17:00 start, feeling like 44°F (7°C), with 71% humidity and 5 mph wind, warming to roughly 48°F (9°C) by the finish. It rained on 1 of the last 10 race days. Wear: Long Sleeve Tech Shirt, Capris or Light Tights, Running Shoes.
Feels like 44°F (7°C) at the start · finish 48°F (9°C) · rain 1 of 10 · start air from 42°F (6°C) to 54°F (12°C)
Conditions at the 17:00 start on the race's usual date each year (december 31 (New Year's Eve)). Years when the race was cancelled or moved still show that date's weather. Source: Open-Meteo ERA5 archive.
Bar: air temperature from start to finish · dot: feels-like effective temperature · ≫ windy (15+ mph) · rain · shaded: PR band 40–50°F
| Year | Start temp | Feels like | Finish | Humidity | Wind | Rain | Sky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 45°F (7°C) | 41°F | 45°F | 68% | 2 mph | – | Mostly clear |
| 2024 | 43°F (6°C) | 40°F | 43°F | 76% | 1 mph | – | Clear |
| 2023 | 48°F (9°C) | 44°F | 48°F | 83% | 7 mph | – | Overcast |
| 2022 | 53°F (12°C) | 50°F | 53°F | 63% | 2 mph | – | Clear |
| 2021 | 54°F (12°C) | 53°F | 54°F | 77% | 3 mph | – | Clear |
| 2020 | 42°F (6°C) | 33°F | 42°F | 77% | 13 mph | 0.13 in | Drizzle |
| 2019 | 50°F (10°C) | 48°F | 50°F | 75% | 2 mph | – | Mostly clear |
| 2018 | 52°F (11°C) | 48°F | 52°F | 68% | 3 mph | – | Clear |
| 2017 | 51°F (11°C) | 43°F | 51°F | 73% | 16 mph | – | Overcast |
| 2016 | 42°F (6°C) | 37°F | 42°F | 50% | 1 mph | – | Clear |
Coldest start: 42°F (6°C) in 2020. Warmest: 54°F (12°C) in 2021. Wettest: 0.13 in in 2020.
The time estimates apply published temperature–performance curves to this race's ten-year weather history. Performance peaks at an effective race temperature of roughly 40 to 50°F and degrades faster the warmer it gets and the slower you run (Ely et al., 2007; El Helou et al., 2012). Wind adds a cost that grows with the square of the wind speed (Pugh, 1971), split into head and tail components on point-to-point courses. Shorter races are penalised less. This is a model, not a prediction; your training and the course matter more.
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Built from the 10-year average start conditions by the same engine as the live tool. Treat optional items as corral-only layers you can shed.
Long Sleeve Tech Shirt
Breathable moisture-wicking fabric
Capris or Light Tights
3/4 length for moderate warmth
Light Gloves
Thin running gloves
Headband
Ear coverage without overheating
Running Shoes
Your regular training shoes
✓ Worn by the author
Compression tight for 40 to 55°F, works under shorts
$78
✓ Worn by the author
Fast-drying micromesh tee for warm-weather miles
$75
Packable wind shell for cool morning miles
$115
✓ Worn by the author
Thin, ribbed quarter sock that keeps grit out
$36
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Over 2016 to 2025 the start averaged 48°F (9°C) (feels like 44°F (7°C)) with 71% humidity and 5 mph wind, warming to about 48°F (9°C) by the finish. It rained measurably on 1 of those 10 race days. The coldest start was 42°F (6°C) in 2020; the warmest was 54°F (12°C) in 2021.
For a typical 48°F (9°C) start: Long Sleeve Tech Shirt, Capris or Light Tights, Running Shoes. Dress for about 15°F warmer than the start temperature, since the race itself adds that much, and plan to shed anything you only need in the corral.
The Nationale-Nederlanden San Silvestre Vallecana is usually held on december 31 (New Year's Eve). The next expected date is Thursday, December 31, 2026. Confirm on the official site, since dates occasionally move.
The live forecast on this page comes from Open-Meteo and unlocks 16 days before the race. Forecasts inside 7 days are reliable for temperature within a few degrees; rain timing firms up in the last 2 to 3 days. Until then, the 10-year history above is the best planning guide.
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